Friday, November 16, 2012

Tweet by @climateprogress via TweetCaster


Climate Progress (@climateprogress)
11/16/12, 1:24 PM

The Earth Is Warming And Human Activity Is The Primary Cause: The Climate Science Paradigm Grows Stronger http://bit.ly/ZIGec9

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Sent from my mobile phone.

Friday, November 09, 2012

Eloquence-Belief-Paradigms

One of the more masterful analyses of the resistance to changing one's beliefs. Especially one's political beliefs. Especially when one's beliefs are contradicted by reality. Especially when one's beliefs are repudiated in a very public fashion....like a National Election.

Jeffrey C. Stewart, professor of Black Studies at the University of California at Santa Barbara writes:
"Charles Sanders [Peirce], the greatest of American philosophers, wrote a brief essay, "The Fixation of Belief," that holds some lessons as to what is wrong with the GOP and how, most likely, it will not solve its problem in the immediate future.

Pierce showed that humans are not fundamentally seekers of truth; we mainly want to avoid doubt. And when events occur, like the 2012 presidential election landslide by Barack Obama when most Republican analysts predicted a Republican victory, doubt emerges. But as Pierce shows, people hold to their beliefs tenaciously long after it has become plain they no longer accord with reality.
Notice how Karl Rowe refused to believe the conclusions of Fox News's own statisticians that Ohio had been won by the president. Or Donald Trump's rant that "We can't let this happen. We need to march on Washington and stop this travesty." These comical reactions are merely extreme versions of the looks on the faces of those assembled at Romney headquarters in Boston who could not believe that their beliefs were so out of step with most of America's voters; and the paid Republican prognosticators - George Will, Dick Morris, etc., etc. all failed to anticipate the 100 electoral vote thumping that Barack laid on Mitt Romney. "
 Read the rest of his article at the link below:

Sunday, November 04, 2012

An hour with Dad

There is a brief breeze as the air pressure from within the building escapes into the warm sky. The door slides shut, the breeze stills and I'm inside once again. I both dread, and look forward to these visits. The dread is easy to explain; who on earth looks forward to being encapsulated in a skilled nursing facility, a nursing home.

I sign in smiling at the lady behind the desk, we exchange normal pleasantries then I turn entering a different world. Sometimes that world begins outdoors, when the residents in wheel chairs sit outdoors catching a few sun beams. Mostly the world become unmistakable before making the left turn, but certainly after turning down the hall and entering another universe.

It is never hard to take that walk down the hall. Everyone of these residents have loved, laughed, cried, and been angry. Everyone of these residents have family who interact with them, or at least did to get the admitted. The humanity shared by each of us causes me to smile at the lady in the wheelchair, and she smiles back. One of the ladies always asks me if I am going. My response is the same, a genuine smile, and a spoken "yes", and then I take the turn by the nurses station.

Waving at Lily, the RN, I turn the corner and head for Dad's room. He is sitting in a chair in front of a TV that is tuned to ESPN, and a college football game. He is asleep, I gently put my hand on his right shoulder and speak my name loud enough for him to hear. Sitting on the bed, reaching for the volume control on the TV I greet Dad.

Dad entered this alternative universe a year ago when he went blind. Eye surgery was attempted, but the end result never changed. His sons and daughters in love attempted to care for him but that proved a full time job. A job you could only take if you quit your day job.

We moved him into an assisted living center. That was hard. That was hard for him, and that was hard for us. It was a time of accelerated challenges, and a learning curve at least one light year long. Dad's loving heart, his intelligence, his good humor stood him in good stead as he adapted to his new world.

Within a month he was making his way down the halls that he could not see. Within two months he was establishing new relationships, always showing the Love of Christ to everyone he met. Yet time is not an ally when important parts of our selves deteriorate. The steady decline, while nearly impossible to see while measuring with 24 hour yard sticks, becomes painfully apparent at longer intervals. When the body and mind decline in concert, the music goes off key, and sometimes things break altogether.

Dad had been fortunate to fall gently, tearing only skin and not bone. When the bones started breaking everything changed again. Five months of assisted living came to an abrupt end, and the family scrambled again to find a new universe, a new home away from home. After less than two weeks one final catastrophic fall removed Dad from vertical existence and put him in bed.

I sit gently upon the bed remembering first experiences with the bed alarm, the startled awareness of a siren going off because the sensor was reporting, incorrectly, that someone had fallen out of bed. We talk, in a slow deliberate way, leaving long pauses for secondary comments and space for grace to appear. This is not the way our conversations started so many months ago. My nervousness at being in a nursing home prompted me to fill conversational silence with words. Not all of the words were superfluous, not all of the words were wasted.

Yet a greater peacefulness suffuses the room as acceptance appears and sits with us. That acceptance may be more on my part than Dad's, yet it changes the chemistry of the moment, embraces the arms of grace that always appear when I raise my hands to the sky in surrender.

Today is not the day for spirited dialog....indeed, the synapses of silence confirm that fact.

Dad either sits in the chair, or lies in bed. His back injuries were so grievous they precluded any serious physical therapy. Besides, this is not a place that many return from. For many this is the last earthly dwelling place. For many this is the last home.

I still recall the conversations he and I had over the years regarding his probable future. The nursing home was not a destination to be anticipated. We speculated what might happen, and the possible sequence of events that might transpire. Neither of us had the imagination to forsee what actually took place.

He receives a stream of visits from his family. Some are able to make it almost every day, others including myself, drop by several times a week. More distant relatives make a journey of it, arriving in a full car after an hour or two on the road.

Dad's gratitude for a visit comes across in the gentle movements of his arm as he feebly waves them in the air. Sometimes his arms trace an ephemeral shape as his hand swings out, guided by the sound of my voice, to seek out a loving human touch. He marries those movements with low murmured compliments, questions about the family members who are absent from the room, and questions about what others are doing.

Before I know it, our time together has passed and I'm making preparations to depart. We go through our "goodbye ritual", which to my eternal delight includes a final parting phrase: "Au revoir". My footsteps retrace the path taken earlier, neither the hall nurse, nor the ladies in their wheelchairs are in sight. A quick signature in the book, a wave at the lady behind the the front desk, and I step through the sliding glass in a mild breeze. Outside the warm sun is still shining.



















Sent from a tiny DEC MicroVAX.

Monday, September 17, 2012

Hot Hot Hot Land !

The hottest summer over land was recorded this year.  For whom you ask?  The Entire Globe!

Yes, you heard right.  The hottest land surface average temperatures ever recorded. This is the NOAA report released today.  When you throw in the ocean temperatures (at 7th warmest) you find that taking land and ocean temperatures this was the 3rd hottest three month period on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/


June–AugustAnomalyRank
(out of 133 years)
Records
°C°FYear(s)°C°F
Global
Land+1.03 ± 0.15+1.85 ± 0.271st WarmestWarmest: 2012+1.03+1.85
133rd CoolestCoolest: 1885-0.61-1.10

Friday, September 14, 2012

Who is worried about Climate Change

We all know who is not worried about climate change, Mitt Romney while speaking at The Republican National Committee. http://www.inquisitr.com/318181/mitt-romney-mocks-climate-change-during-rnc-speech/

But who is worried?

The US Military for one:
in 2011
 http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/A%20National%20Strategic%20Narrative.pdf
in 2010
http://www.defense.gov/qdr/qdr%20as%20of%2029jan10%201600.pdf

In each document the inevitablilty of climate change is a given, a proven expectation, something that needs to be mitigated.

Most of the S&P 500 Corporations for another:

The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) surveys the S&P 500 corporations every year on numerous topics including climate change. Over 80% of the Standard and Poor 500 corporations have officially integraged climate change into their risk management strategies, and over 70% have merged planning for climate change into their regular business strategy.

"Climate change has been further integrated into
enterprise risk management (83% (281) in 2012 versus
75% (254) in 2011) and overall business strategy (73%

(247) in 2012 versus 65% (219) in 2011)." 1

1 Page 9 of https://www.cdproject.net/CDPResults/CDP-SP500-2012.pdf

A list of some of the top corporations involved in incorporating climate change into their strategic planning include:
Microsoft
Sprint
UPS
Cisco Systems
AT&T
Google
Home Depot
Wells Fargo

Many of the World's Largest Cities are also committed to addressing climate change:

"While international negotiations continue to make incremental progress, C40 Cities are forging ahead. Collectively they have taken more than 4,700 actions to tackle climate change, and the will to do more is stronger than ever. As innovators and practitioners, our cities are at the forefront of this issue – arguably the greatest challenge of our time."—Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg
 http://www.c40cities.org/home
          
C40 is a network of the world’s megacities taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. With a unique set of assets, the C40 works with participating cities to address climate risks and impacts locally and globally.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Time is Relative

I went to visit Dad today in the nursing home.  Over the course of the hour long visit he asked me four times what day it was, what month it was, what time it was.   Visiting Dad is like taking a trip through a time tunnel.  I'm never sure when or where I'll arrive. It is a rare space, a space where time is elastic and a space where the relationship is wrapped in love.  Love....is what comes out....pain and reality intervene...but in the end Love is what remains. 

Dad believes he will die soon.  Why does he hold this thought?  A doctor told him.  We know that no doctor would have told him this, but this is seen by some who've had more contact with this elastic time warp, as the mind wrestling with life and it's impending end.  His heart remains pure and when you meet his heart with truth and love, relief flows between us.  Is this situation dire?  Yes.  Is there recovery from this position in life? Not likely.  Is there potential for growth and maturation? Yes there is...on the part of the resident and on the part of any visitor.  I've heard that the way you live your life is the way you end it....I have no idea whether there is any truth to that or not....but Dad lives now in Love, even as he lived before in Love.

Friday, August 03, 2012

Climate Normals


Climate Normals

 Last summer the new Climate Normals were released to the public on July 1, 2011. These Climate Normals are the latest in a string of three decade averages for the regular climatological variables (including rainfall and temperatures).  The new Normal covers 1981-2010 and replaces the previous dataset that covered 1971-2000.  This data is in raw form but is eventually broken out into more user friendly products.  The 1971-2000 products are described here.  An easy to use web breakout of the 1981-2010 products can be found here.

How do we use Normals?  Trying to remember the past weather over a 3 year period is tricky, not to mention a 30 year period.  The Normals give us “just the facts ma’am”, and supplement our memory. They give us an accurate context for understanding today’s temperature, today’s rainfall, and the other “core” Normals. Your local television meteorologist uses the Normals to compare today’s temperature and rainfall with past averages to give a more accurate perspective than relying on memory. 
 
How many weather stations contribute to the Normals? The 1981-2010 dataset included data from over 9800 stations.  Stations in different parts of the country report different data. An obvious example is that stations near Miami, FL do not report snowfall totals, but those near Minot, ND do! 
 
How many official Normals are available?  The United States started computing Normals based on a recommendation of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  The WMO is an agency of the UN that has a membership of 189 “Member States and Territories” .  The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is the producer of the official Normals for the United States. 
 
If you’d like to see a webcast (a PDF) of the release of the 1981-2010 Normals check out this link.
 
So did anything change when we updated our Normals?  Yes, there are numerous changes in the average temperatures, most of which can be seen at a glance when you view them graphically.

These images show the Statewide differences between the 1981-2010 and 1971-2000 Normals, top image is differences in Maximum Temperatures, the bottom shows Minimum Temperatures.





What do the Normals tell us about the state of the climate in the United States?  Firstly, the Normals are not developed to be a metric for measuring climate change. Secondly, based on all of the factors involved, the new Normals indicate an average temperature increase of about 0.5 degrees F.  However, these differences could be due to station moves, methodological changes, hardware (instrumentation) changes, etc. For those wanting to track differences related to climate change they need to analyze the time series maintained by the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN).  For a further detailed look at analyzing the climate and trying to determine if a change is occuring and to what degree, the US Climate Reference Network (USCRN) is in place.   




Wednesday, July 11, 2012

January - June 2012 - Hot so far

We'll talk about how hot this year was from now on out...even if the rest of the year "behaves" and approximates climate normals.  Here are 4 charts illustrating how hot it has been so far this year.

Climate extremes just got even crazier

The Derecho of June 29, 2012

I just had to save this link.  The "Derecho Superstorm" that blasted to many millions of Americans that last week in June. NWS Documents the Derecho of June 29, 2012

Beauty can be found almost anywhere

Even on a train travelling from New Jersey to New York City.... Still Life Gallery of the Meadowlands

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Strange Comment from the State Climatologist

I've been digging around in the climate data for the last few days, really mining some "ugly" raw data.  However, once the data is organized a great sigh of relief is heard around the office.  Now the data is useful.   I hope to post it online in the near future.

In other news:

Dr. John Christy is the Alabama State Climatologist.  He had something interesting to say in a recent online article.

Using data from 75 weather stations from Greenville to Tennessee, Christy developed a set of temperature records going back to 1883. Looking only at average high temperatures for June, July and August, he found that the average for the past six summers was the hottest since 1952-1957.
While 2006-2011 was the hottest six-summer stretch in more than half a century, it was only the tenth hottest six-summer period on the 129-year record. That seems to eliminate manmade global warming as a likely cause for the recent hot summers, Christy said.

(Emphasis mine)
reference: http://nsstc.uah.edu/essnews/stories/06292012.html

Now as we've stated before in this blog... the globe is a big place. What happens in Alabama does not determine what is happening over the entire globe.   I won't repeat that speech here but you can read it -->> http://blognimrod.blogspot.com/2010/12/one-minute-global-warming-speech.html
if you like.

It would be interesting to see that raw data dating to 1883 and run the computations to see what the numbers show.

Until next time!


Sunday, April 08, 2012

Hot Hot Hot - March 2012

March 2012 is one for the records books.  One of the hottest (in the sense of records broken) months in USA history, and certainly one of the all time hottest March months in USA history. See one map below:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=77465

As you know from how I've defined Global Climate Warming, this is not a proof of such.  Yet, these are the types of regional anomaly that are predicted by a global warming.

I suspect we'll not see another March this warm in the next couple of decades, especially when you consider all of the details about this one:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=66

Just keep reaching for the iced tea!