Rainfall in Birmingham, Alabama for the first half of 2020 compared to the expected average

It started raining in January and feels like it has not stopped yet.  Currently in Birmingham, Alabama we have received over 49 inches of rain, which is 21 inches above normal. This is one strange twist to a potential climate change. 

 

Temperature changes by country from 1900-2019

Which country are you from?
You can stop the animation to see how your country is doing with temperature changes in the 20th - 21st century.


https://twitter.com/anttilip/status/1259906496940433408?s=21

Zachary Labe’s Beautiful Graph on a Warming Arctic

This is one of my short posts so I’ll confine it to the URL and image with bare annotation.

This graph indicates temperatures by month by year by ranking in terms of warmest or coolest. Colors are appropriately assigned with dark colors indicating coolness and oranges and reds being warmest. A small number in each block indicates the actual ranking.

https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

Global Database of Holocene Paleo Temperature Records - Link Provided

These data are *not* mine.  I am only providing a link to the actual data.



https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0445-3

Problems With The Documentary ‘The Planet of the Humans’

It was obvious to me while viewing the film that there was obsolete data being presented as current facts. That put me on guard and the onslaught of errors and lies came like a flood. 

Michael Mann re posted this Tweet 

 https://twitter.com/ketanj0/status/1253805911665188864?s=21

Read Ketan Joshi’s article to learn more.  

The contents of the article referenced In the Tweet are here: 

https://ketanjoshi.co/2020/04/24/planet-of-the-humans-a-reheated-mess-of-lazy-old-myths/

But wait, there is more analysis of this bad film:
https://www.ecoequity.org/2020/04/why-the-planet-of-the-humans-is-crap/

https://www.filmsforaction.org/articles/film-review-forget-about-planet-of-the-humans/

https://grist.org/energy/michael-moores-latest-film-is-riddled-with-errors-and-millions-are-watching/?utm_content=buffer77acf&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

A collection of articles (including Joshi’s links above) can be found here:
http://getenergysmartnow.com/2020/04/25/moores-boorish-planet-of-the-humans-an-annotated-collection/

More articles will be forthcoming...


Video takedown:

https://climatecrocks.com/2020/05/09/best-yet-video-takedown-of-michael-moore-movie/

The Holocene and Why Climate Matters

Stefan Ramsdorf posted this chart on Twitter two days ago.  The graph tells the story.

Easter Sunday 2020 - Severe Weather - 11:30am Update Map posted

This is the second of four widely spaced forecast maps from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). This one was released at 7am CDT Sunday morning.  The third one comes out at 11:30am and the last one comes out at 3pm CDT. The area of MODERATE risk has expanded to cover more of the state of Alabama than the maps released yesterday.  We all know storms don't read maps, but we also know that the threat parameters have expanded in size and scope.  A moderate risk area this wide gives ample room for a potential upgrade in risk.  I won't mention that here since neither the SPC nor the local office of the Birmingham National Weather Service (NWS) have even hinted at a potential upgrade.

Here in Birmingham Alabama we take a look at the details regarding timing at today’s severe weather threat.

The broad window of severe weather is indicative of a degree of uncertainty regarding timing and how many actual episodes of severe weather may impact us today. Current thinking is that at least two episodes will impact the Birmingham metro area today, one starting in the early afternoon and extending for some hours, and then one triggered by the approaching cold front later on today.  The largest unknown parameter for severe weather is the predicted capping for this afternoon.  Capping is forecast, but the strength of the cap is unknown at this time. Capping is when a temperature inversion "puts a lid on it" and prevents storms from expanding into the upper atmosphere. That expansion is necessary for a storm to become a supercell. The cap functions like the lid on a pressure cooker. When the cap "breaks" the storm explodes upward into uncontrolled growth and every mode of severe weather becomes possible as a supercell is created. Cap "breakage" can be forecast when weather balloons are released at different times in the day to access the upper air temperature profile

At this moment (10:10am Sunday morning) it appears that all is calm in Alabama except for a few discreet storms. May your Easter Sunday morning be a good one!

                   NEW UPDATE AT 11:30am                 

This is the 11:30am map. Note that MODERATE risk area spread into southern Tennessee.

The chances for wind damage are far higher than the chances for a tornado.   

Here is the wind damage potential map.  

"Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point."(note)  

Here is the tornado potential.

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

Please remain alert during this dynamic and potentially dangerous event. 

YNWA - = You'll Never Walk Alone

The iconic song has been sung by Liverpool Football Club supporters since the early 1960's. Its a perfect sentiment to contemplate and exhort during these corona virus times. 



This is the version that started it all, Gerry & the Pacemakers

You'll Never Walk Alone by Gerry and the Pacemakers


This version has to be included, the song sung after Liverpool's win over Tottenham in last years's Champions League Final.

After the 2019 Champions League Final



Liverpool and 95,000 football fans sing together in Australia. Feel free to skip to 4:07 for the song

Liverpool and 95,000 football fans sing together in Australia



Excerpt from the Royal Liverpool Philharmonic Orchestra

Sung by Royal Liverpool Philharmonic Orchestra

Corona Virus Dashboards - Johns Hopkins and Samford University

Johns Hopkins Corona Virus Dashboard

Samford University Corona Virus Dashboard for ALABAMA

Warmest Recorded North American (land) Winter

The December 2019 through February 2020 timeframe experienced a 2.3 degree Celsius above normal. This ranks #1 in the list of winters over the past 140 years.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring/global/nhem/land/3

2019-2020 European Winter far warmer than recent winters

The Copernicus Climate Change Service published this chart and a document on twitter on March 8, 2020.  The obvious conclusion from the data is that this past winter was extraordinarily warm compared to the data points indicated since 1850.

More details can be found here:
https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/2020-03/Supplementary%20text%20for%20winter%202019_2020_0.pdf

Fifty Year Precipitation Patterns by Season

Data from Dr. Brian Brettschneider, PhD in Climatology. Posted from his twitter account on March 8, 2020.

Some of these climate changes over the past half century are worrisome since this trend promises to disrupt peoples lives.

Note, the chart labeled Mar-Mar should have been Mar-May. 

=====================================

This is the fifty year annual (as opposed to seasonal) trend. 

The Breath of Life

I lay on the gurney early one morning first looking up at the ceiling and then forward to the wall, the wall which contained the screens with the read outs from my sensors.  Covered in white blankets lying on the white sheet of the gurney it was like being a subject for product photography. (A recollection of setting up the light box where all of the interiors were white) and the item being photographed situated in the middle crossed my mind.)  Not having any sleep the night before had taken it's toll on my body, and perhaps my mind as well.

The nurses had busied themselves when my wheels stopped rolling, attaching the O2 saturation sensor on my finger, the blood pressure (BP) cuff on my bicep. An IV, already implanted, was prepped for the infusion of propofol. Other preparations swirled around me, taking for granted that I would not rise up like Lazarus and stalk out of the room recoiling from the upcoming procedure. The BP cuff automatically tightened, a feeling that causes me to clench in resistance, which heightens the discomfort. I glance at the screen and see that my systolic pressure (the higher number) is as high as I've ever seen it, 160 mmHg. Wow! My anxiety increases just looking at the number.

The nurse asks me if I want to retain my glasses until the doctor arrives. I reply in the affirmative. (Its always good to see the person with whom you are conversing.) Then the memory arises. Its actually a couple of memories, one of which dates back to 1969.  In 1969 I got my hands on a book describing hatha yoga practices.  After coming home from High School and returning to my room at home I'd practice some of the asana (postures) and some of the pranayama (breathing). Over the decades since I've practiced hatha yoga either in classes or on my own. It's never been a major commitment of my time. However, its presence, like that of a good friend, always brought comfort. Over subsequent years I sought out other teachings as well. Teachings that concentrated on helping the body/mind heal. Healing from trauma is a process that can be enhanced or diminished. The practices I learned enhanced my healing and helped make me whole. Recalling those memories was comforting, but a mere recollection would not make a difference in my BP.

I began a breath meditation on the gurney, with slow inhalations and slow exhalations. It was fun to actually participate in my own biofeedback experiment! I watched the systolic pressure decrease from 160 to 154. More breathing accompanied by a quiet visual meditation brought my BP down to 148, then to 140. By the time I saw it fall to 132 the doctor arrived which required me to focus elsewhere.

He explained the procedure in general terms and I verbalized my understanding and acceptance. The nurse removed my glasses. The anesthesiologist moved my arms so that the IV was easy to reach. She attached an additional line with the anesthesia and started the flow. She said, “now its time to go to sleep”.  I watched the drip into my IV and wondered, is it going to work, what if it does not knock me out? That was my last thought.

A couple of days later I was thinking about the experience of nothingness that occurs after anesthesia.  The passage is smooth, quick, and painless. Existence while in nothingness is, in a word, nothing. So, I was living and breathing yet utterly unconscious. It’s sort of like taking a nap, except it isn’t. When I take a nap I’m thinking thoughts as I transition slowly to sleep. Those dreamlike images float around and faintly swirl until they dissipate into sleep. A sudden noise brings my consciousness from a deep well into a shallow pool. I’m aware that the cat has jumped from the chair to the floor and then I’m back in the deep sleep well.  At night my consciousness rises and falls all night long as awareness fades in and out.

Under anesthesia noise does not disturb me. Under anesthesia a scalpel cutting through my skin does not startle me. Under anesthesia turning my body, or probing it in any way does not awaken me. I might as well be dead, but my breathing proves otherwise. This is a good death in the sense that I return from the dead an hour or so later. Returning is good. There is still much to do, and the return offers the opportunity to continue to live, to continue with Life. To avoid death one more time.

Global Surface Temperature Departures and ENSO Values

GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES AND ENSO VALUES

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201903/supplemental/page-3


Entire quote below found on URL above.

"Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niño

The graphic below (above in this case, Ed.) depicts the monthly global temperature anomalies—that is, each month compared its 20th century average—since 1980, and the influence of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

The height of the bar represents the global temperature anomaly for the month. The color of the bar represents the ENSO status, as defined by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which is the three-month average temperature anomaly in the Niño3.4 region centered on that month. Months colored in red had ONI values indicating an El Niño episode active (at least five consecutive months with the three-month Niño3.4 temperature more than 0.5°C (0.9°F) above the working "normal"). Blue represents La Niña episodes, more than 0.5°C (0.9°F) cooler than normal. Months in grey indicate ENSO-neutral conditions, when neither El Niño nor La Niña were present.

Several observations are apparent in the figure. First, nearly every month since 1980 has been above the 20th century average, and has generally warmed through the period. Second, El Niño-like conditions (those months in red) tend to be warmer than neighboring periods, and La Niña-like conditions (blue) tend to be cooler. Third, protracted El Niño-like episodes tend to warm through the event, while La Niña-like episodes tend to cool through the event. Fourth, and finally, there are exceptions to all of the above points."

Global Temperature Since the last Ice Age

Timeline

XKCD presents a timeline showing Earth's average temperature record for the last 22,000 years.

https://xkcd.com/1732/

Sent from my iOS phone.

The President of the United States Behaves Like an Immature Insecure Teenager

Good grief. Greta Thunberg wins Time Magazine's person of the year honors and the President of the United States (POTUS) goes after a 16 year old girl!  Only a person who wanted to behave like an immature and insecure teenager would do something like that.

From Donald Trump's twitter account:
"So ridiculous. Greta must work on her Anger Management problem, then go to a good old fashioned movie with a friend! Chill Greta, Chill!"


""What kind of president bullies a teenager?" tweeted former Vice President Joe Biden, a leading 2020 Democratic contender, adding that Trump "could learn a few things from Greta on what it means to be a leader."

"Does the President really not have anything better to do today than attack a 16 year old?" tweeted Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va.

Trump's tweet even came up at Thursday's House Judiciary Committee markup of the articles of impeachment against the president.""

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-mocks-greta-thunberg-after-she-wins-time-person-year-n1100531?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma&fbclid=IwAR3hjGHFSLBxDy6YjbajSfSr7HkeiYPeFzP42oDrLZikLkf56VMJfA2HWNw

They Knew This - When ?

In 1982 the scientists studying climate changes wrought by The Industrial Revolution predicted that by the year 2020 the CO2 levels would be between 410-420 ppm.  At the time the number was in the low 300s.

The scientists worked for Exxon and they knew that the climate was changing.
The paper detailing their findings can be found here CO2 Greenhouse Effect

[the original link has gone dead, but here the information is discussed: https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/news/speeches/time-to-wake-up-exxon-knew +

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01122015/documents-exxons-early-co2-position-senior-executives-engage-and-warming-forecast/ ]

Their science was remarkably accurate and yet for 27 years Exxon funded climate change deniers so that no industry crippling regulations could be enacted.  It was an act of desperate corporate survival. By succeeding in sowing seeds of doubt, they helped fuel the “climate change deniers” of today who ambush people with “fake science” or cherry picked data to further their agenda of preventing any significant cultural and economic changes.

History will measure and reveal the significance of this delay in action by humans to rectify a chemical imbalance in the atmosphere. This chemical imbalance causes “The Greenhouse Effect” and guarantees that once it reaches a certain level it will generate planet wide changes in Earth’s climate. Whether we can make a significant reduction in the growth of CO2, or not, there is no harm in making the attempt. The attempt being our only hope in preventing catastrophic changes in climate that will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people.

One figure from the Exxon report made in 1982:

The curve to the left is the prediction of CO2 rise, the curve to the right is the increase of temperature that is expected to match that rise. Both curves are almost dead on accurate to the present measurements.

An animation of the Keeling Curve (measurements of CO2 for decades) demonstrates the yearly "breathing" of CO2 where it is high in one part of the year and lower during the next.  Yet, the trend line continues to climb, like a stairway to heaven, only this stairway may lead elsewhere.

The Keeling Curve animation

Some of the other conclusions in the animation include that scientific evidence that human beings have never experienced an Earth with this high of a concentration of CO2.

The Global Fever in September 2019

This is not a happy Earth.  It is a hot planet. These are the September 2019 temperature anomaly’s all over the globe. Depending on how your algorithms calculate Arctic temperatures this month was the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest September in the last 150 years.

To read more about it and play with a plotter to display a map for any time period you may be interested in go to:
 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/1/9/1880-2019

To display global maps with the data superimposed you can travel here:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/mapping

The Extinction Symbol

To read more about it:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_symbol

https://grist.org/article/the-story-behind-the-extinction-rebellion-symbol-at-climate-protests/

https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/biodiversity/elements_of_biodiversity/extinction_crisis/