Global Surface Temperature Departures and ENSO Values

GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES AND ENSO VALUES

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201903/supplemental/page-3


Entire quote below found on URL above.

"Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niño

The graphic below (above in this case, Ed.) depicts the monthly global temperature anomalies—that is, each month compared its 20th century average—since 1980, and the influence of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

The height of the bar represents the global temperature anomaly for the month. The color of the bar represents the ENSO status, as defined by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which is the three-month average temperature anomaly in the Niño3.4 region centered on that month. Months colored in red had ONI values indicating an El Niño episode active (at least five consecutive months with the three-month Niño3.4 temperature more than 0.5°C (0.9°F) above the working "normal"). Blue represents La Niña episodes, more than 0.5°C (0.9°F) cooler than normal. Months in grey indicate ENSO-neutral conditions, when neither El Niño nor La Niña were present.

Several observations are apparent in the figure. First, nearly every month since 1980 has been above the 20th century average, and has generally warmed through the period. Second, El Niño-like conditions (those months in red) tend to be warmer than neighboring periods, and La Niña-like conditions (blue) tend to be cooler. Third, protracted El Niño-like episodes tend to warm through the event, while La Niña-like episodes tend to cool through the event. Fourth, and finally, there are exceptions to all of the above points."

Global Temperature Since the last Ice Age

Timeline

XKCD presents a timeline showing Earth's average temperature record for the last 22,000 years.

https://xkcd.com/1732/

Sent from my iOS phone.

The President of the United States Behaves Like an Immature Insecure Teenager

Good grief. Greta Thunberg wins Time Magazine's person of the year honors and the President of the United States (POTUS) goes after a 16 year old girl!  Only a person who wanted to behave like an immature and insecure teenager would do something like that.

From Donald Trump's twitter account:
"So ridiculous. Greta must work on her Anger Management problem, then go to a good old fashioned movie with a friend! Chill Greta, Chill!"


""What kind of president bullies a teenager?" tweeted former Vice President Joe Biden, a leading 2020 Democratic contender, adding that Trump "could learn a few things from Greta on what it means to be a leader."

"Does the President really not have anything better to do today than attack a 16 year old?" tweeted Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va.

Trump's tweet even came up at Thursday's House Judiciary Committee markup of the articles of impeachment against the president.""

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-mocks-greta-thunberg-after-she-wins-time-person-year-n1100531?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma&fbclid=IwAR3hjGHFSLBxDy6YjbajSfSr7HkeiYPeFzP42oDrLZikLkf56VMJfA2HWNw

They Knew This - When ?

In 1982 the scientists studying climate changes wrought by The Industrial Revolution predicted that by the year 2020 the CO2 levels would be between 410-420 ppm.  At the time the number was in the low 300s.

The scientists worked for Exxon and they knew that the climate was changing.
The paper detailing their findings can be found here CO2 Greenhouse Effect

[the original link has gone dead, but here the information is discussed: https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/news/speeches/time-to-wake-up-exxon-knew +

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01122015/documents-exxons-early-co2-position-senior-executives-engage-and-warming-forecast/ ]

Their science was remarkably accurate and yet for 27 years Exxon funded climate change deniers so that no industry crippling regulations could be enacted.  It was an act of desperate corporate survival. By succeeding in sowing seeds of doubt, they helped fuel the “climate change deniers” of today who ambush people with “fake science” or cherry picked data to further their agenda of preventing any significant cultural and economic changes.

History will measure and reveal the significance of this delay in action by humans to rectify a chemical imbalance in the atmosphere. This chemical imbalance causes “The Greenhouse Effect” and guarantees that once it reaches a certain level it will generate planet wide changes in Earth’s climate. Whether we can make a significant reduction in the growth of CO2, or not, there is no harm in making the attempt. The attempt being our only hope in preventing catastrophic changes in climate that will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people.

One figure from the Exxon report made in 1982:

The curve to the left is the prediction of CO2 rise, the curve to the right is the increase of temperature that is expected to match that rise. Both curves are almost dead on accurate to the present measurements.

An animation of the Keeling Curve (measurements of CO2 for decades) demonstrates the yearly "breathing" of CO2 where it is high in one part of the year and lower during the next.  Yet, the trend line continues to climb, like a stairway to heaven, only this stairway may lead elsewhere.

The Keeling Curve animation

Some of the other conclusions in the animation include that scientific evidence that human beings have never experienced an Earth with this high of a concentration of CO2.

The Global Fever in September 2019

This is not a happy Earth.  It is a hot planet. These are the September 2019 temperature anomaly’s all over the globe. Depending on how your algorithms calculate Arctic temperatures this month was the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest September in the last 150 years.

To read more about it and play with a plotter to display a map for any time period you may be interested in go to:
 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/1/9/1880-2019

To display global maps with the data superimposed you can travel here:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/mapping

The Extinction Symbol

To read more about it:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_symbol

https://grist.org/article/the-story-behind-the-extinction-rebellion-symbol-at-climate-protests/

https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/biodiversity/elements_of_biodiversity/extinction_crisis/

Once you learn to read

I was attracted to this tile mosaic primarily because of the colors. The bright red, and deep blue invited me to come closer, to examine in detail what could only be seen in abstract from the street. Walking up the sidewalk the writing became apparent, then as I got closer it became legible.

                                "Once you learn to Read, you will Be forever free".

This motto made sense to me, yet it carries an implied caution. Learning to read is a ticket to a life time of possibilities that will not befall the non reader. However, learning to read is no guarantee that you will take the initiative to pursue those possibilities. Reading comes first, but one must couple the aspiration to the drive to achieve goals. One must study the roots of freedom to understand what it means to "...Be forever free."

Defying Gravity- Roger McGough.

Roger McGough's poem is deceptive, succinct, and to the point. One of the best poems on this subject I've ever read.


http://in-country-heaven.blogspot.com/2016/05/defying-gravity-roger-mcgough.html

The Greening of Financial Systems

The central banks and the financial structures they support are at risk when climate change is brought into the equation.  Here is what an umbrella organization of those central banks is saying .

https://www.banque-france.fr/en/financial-stability/international-role/network-greening-financial-system/press-events

Day One Entry: Mar 24, 2019

In honor of the 100th birthday of Lawrence Ferlinghetti.

When the wreaths of youth weighed heavily upon my form,
threatening to cast me down who knew where,
Lawrence,
like a Divine Wind
blew my wreaths away and
exploded my chains,
and taught me to sing out from my heart,
that deepest part that was hidden so deep,
Sing out the sky until I fall fast
Asleep.

63°F Partly Cloudy
953 Riverchase Pkwy W, Hoover, AL, United States

Sent from my iOS phone.

To Charity or Not to Charity

There are a lot of generous hearted folks who have used their FaceBook birthday celebration to offer you the opportunity for you to give to a charity of their choosing. Their motives seem pure, altruistic and very sweet. From conversations with several folks who do this it seems apparent that they mostly wanted to turn their birthday into something larger than themselves and wanted to “give back” to a community of deserving and needy folks.  This is a laudable perspective and a fresh reversal of a “me first” perspective touted in common culture.

Yet, there are reasons you might hesitate to support a charity with which you may be unfamiliar. Firstly, you may not have a lot of funds to toss around and are struggling to be frugal. Secondly, you may already have favorite charities to which you give money (or goods) every year.  Thirdly, it is possible that the charity is not a good steward of the funds received, and indeed, may run very close to being a fraudulent charity.

This essay will look at the third possibility and try to answer the questions about how to verify a charity, and determine its efficiency. Three organizations that have been involved with verifying, rating, and documenting charities are: Charity Navigator, CharityWatch, and GuideStar. This list is not meant to be comprehensive, and I’m not going to rate these organizations.  I’ve used one of these organizations for around 20 years.

One of the easiest ways to use these organizations to your advantage is to search on a charity that has caught your interest. If the charity has been in business for a while and been filing  F990’s for years then perhaps that charity has been rated. For example, Charity Navigator will only rate a charity that has filed 7 years of F990 forms.  For charities that have not been posting the F990 (required of tax exempt organizations) for years and years, then taking a peek at the F990 that did get filed can give you a window into how the charity is organized structurally and how they spend their money.

In this example of a less than exemplary charity I’m looking at a Native American charity. Before proceeding further I want to say there are some good charities doing excellent work for the Native American communities scattered around the country and I contribute to one of those. However, there are others that are rotten the core.

What criteria should be use to judge a charity? Well, each charity watch organization details the criteria they use and it is worth your time checking that out on their web page. One of the criteria mentioned by folks examining charities is monetary efficiency. That’s just my term for how much of the money taken in actually gets used for the intended recipients. Some writers have suggested that at least 75% of the money go to the recipients with the remaining 25% being allocated to marketing, salaries, infrastructure upkeep and the like. Some very efficient charities actually allocate over 90% of their funds directly to the people in need.

The Native American charity that I’m examining is not going to be named. However, the figures (rounded off) from its most recent F990 will be used.

This charity took $1,200,00 in charitable donations during the year 2016. Approximately half of that,  $620,000 went for marketing expenses paid to an LLC that is essentially one guy (named in other research) who lives and works from his home. An amount near $180,000 was spent on computer expenses and that money was sent to a condo in another state. There was one paid director who received a salary of about $60,000, and an additional $150,000 was spent for salaries and other related expenses.

If you are now wondering how much money is left over for the Native American recipients of the program money, you are not alone. Over one million dollars has been used for “expenses” all to provide just under $200,000 to the programs for the Native American recipients. This is not an efficient charity. Not only that, some might call it a fraudulent charity since it seems designed to provide two people with three fourths of the total funds for the charity.

For this reason I don’t ever contribute to a Charity that I’ve not researched. I recommend that if you are curious about your charity that you do a little detective work first. That kind of work can be quite interesting and a little fun.

Dreamtime

Upon awakening this morning these thoughts fell fully formed and flowing like a river.

I will tell you a puzzle. Perhaps it will be a puzzle of delight, one which unwinds its light as you wend you way wistfully through its maze. On the other hand the puzzle may be dimly perceived, perplexing, petulant.

The puzzle may morph a bit with time and effort, but that does not detract from the truths/frights within.

You see, for all of this time you have held a key unknowingly. This key would glitter in the sun and be rendered an object of curiosity , or other times it would lie unseen in a dark drawer.

Your life changes from day to day, from hour to hour and it is pivoting upon your thoughts, your judgements, your preferences, your disgusts. Every turn within your mind stream, conveys a new universe, each fork you choose propels one option closer to non existence and reinforces the other option.

You are the architect of all you survey, and the builder, and the inhabitant of your creation.  You make a world from which you cannot ever escape. Yet, the content and consequences in the world are completely within your power to control. 

Each time you entertain the thought (no matter whose voice is attached to the thought!) that you are suffering, or needy, or failing to achieve, you are laying down the cobblestones in a road on which you are walking.  Your paved path is easier to tread the next time and those thoughts will gain greater speed of transit. You  will have encouraged a habitual thought and made it easier for it to be re born and to carry you within its orbit. 

In a like manner if you carry thoughts of generosity, caring for others and entertaining a willingness to help others you lay down cobblestones to make this journey more predictable, more dependable. 

Each thought you embrace is like a candle. Sheltered from the errant  breeze it provides light for travelling the maze. Yet! There are times it would be better if you blew it out!

For an illumination easing ones path down the cobblestones of despair does you no good. In the dark you can find your way for you are the architect of all you survey. You can pivot on a dime  refuse the illumined path and stride forcefully through the dark toward another path, a better path, a brighter path. 

You can master the puzzle. You can choose the way of light, love, generosity, and peace and smooth over the cobblestones. As you return again and again to this path and bring more construction materials you can add streetlights, cafes, theaters, libraries, and most importantly friends who will be companions on your redemptive journey. Like the Phoenix you arise and fly again, simply because you choose another path.

Cats And Their Body Language

Don't you  wish you could understand what your cat is saying to you?  They are quite intelligent and they really know what they want. How can we eavesdrop into their thoughts and conversation, even if sometimes your cat seems to be talking to themselves?

Well, a true cat lover has posted some clues and based on my 30 year exposure to cats (of multiple breeds) he seems to have hit the nail on the head.

"The Body Language of Cats" is worth reading for entertainment and more importantly educational reasons. You will come to love and enjoy your four legged feline companion more when you are aware of how they are thinking both about the world around them and how they think about you!

SoundCloud post of On A Far Shore

Well this is another experiment in cross media sharing.  I'm going to try to share a SOUNDCLOUD link to a playlist that I created.  In fact all of the cuts on the playlist I created.  Some are ok, one or two might be better than that and several are average or below.  I've got to start somewhere though and here is where it is.

Monolith By the Sea

Test post using soundcloud...

https://soundcloud.com/user-662277008/monolith-by-the-sea

Ten Years After

Approximately ten years ago I commenced my first climate research. This has been spoken of earlier. My experience as an amateur weather enthusiast/observer/forecaster in no way prepared me for the complexities of trying to understand the climate.  That the climate was changing seemed to be intuitive, yet where were the measuring sticks?  What metrics were important to measure changes.

In July of 2008 Stefan Rahmstorf gave a presentation on some relevant datasets. He called it "The 5 Most Important Data Sets of Climate Science".  This past fall, a blog post on Open Mind, revisited those datasets and gave us an update.  You can see the post, graphs and all, here.

The most obvious conclusion to be drawn, whether or not you agree with the choice of these particular 5 datasets is that climate change has continued unabated, and that for the last 10 years the climate scientists nailed in in these 5 datasets. 

Giving

As a child, Christmas was a “magical” time, a time of mystery and dark, a time of expectation and celebration, a time of giving and receiving.

My parents really enjoyed Christmas and enjoyed the part they played for their children. As kids we were always excited with what we were going to receive, especially the surprises along the way. Yet, we were also taught, and learned to enjoy giving as well. The balance was always there. That balance is a gift I treasure to this day.

To Sequence or Not to Sequence, That is the Question

Last night I took the simplified sheet music for Silent Night over to the synthesizer and powered up the electronics.

First I sat at the midi controller and slowly keyed the notes on the keyboard. I’m not good at reading music and picking out notes,  but before long I’d memorized the first eight notes: G, A, G, E, repeated twice. 

By the way,  this is the C major version.  Then I played those measures a couple more times and darn if I hadn’t memorized it.  That is mind blowing, because I’m “not supposed” to be able to do that.  

Then I sat down with the ER-101 Quad Sequencer and started entering notes.  Two weeks ago I had created a “cheat sheet” for that sequencer showing all of the notes that it could produce (99 of them) and correlated that with an 88 key piano keyboard. Then I added the peculiar notation used by the sequencer and created a matrix with the addition of midi notes.  This “cheat sheet” gave me the confidence to add the first 14 notes of  Silent Night into the sequencer. So I pressed “run”, and I sort of recognized the melody.  There were a few mistakes,  notably (pardon the pun) notes entered in the wrong octave.  Then I played it again and realized I had not entered anything resembling duration.  You see, this song has dotted quarter notes, half notes, eighth notes and other expressions of musical time. 

Adding duration to the notes took twice as long as entering the notes themselves. I understood the relationships between the lengths of the different notes, but had to come up with a quantification of the ratios. This time when I pressed “run” it sounded much more like the hymn. 

I’m still not completely satisfied because I’m not sure my tempo is matching up with the 3/4 time signature. So, I’ll practice my best SWAG (sophisticated wild ass guess) on it and see where it takes me. 

Then, I need to add the remaining 33 notes to complete the song, and set up the correct duration, and perform SWAG  for some of the calculations. 

I am excited about pushing the envelope (pardon the synth pun) on the ER-101. This has come about by a decision made about six weeks ago to dig deep into the basics of what I have.  It involved patching the ultimate basic patch and putting out a YouTube video explaining the patch. Then I pulled aside one module and did an in-depth exploration of the module and put out a YouTube video explaining it.  These explorations are primarily for my sake. I’ve learned over the years that if I study something well enough to explain it then this crosses over into the realm of deeper learning. Preparing to teach something helps me learn it. 

Today I walked past the band stands of the Alabama Symphony Orchestra.  They come to the cafeteria at Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alabama one day a year to play two Christmas concerts.   In between the concerts I dropped by the cafeteria to get a sandwich. As I casually strolled past the double bass lying on the floor I glanced up at the music sheet on the stand. Hah! All of his music is in the bass clef, I never would have even known that two years ago. This journey has been so much fun.

Who knew about this visual illusion, the Shepard's Tables?

I recently came across the Shepard's Tables illusion and was completely flummoxed.  Those tables just "cannot" be the same size.  But they are :)

Check out this link:   http://www.psychologyconcepts.com/shepards-tables-illusion/












not my art..... it was borrowed from:
 http://www.cut-the-knot.org/Curriculum/Geometry/Shepard.shtml


Or how about The Dress?  This optical illusion is even more stunning because it is about Color!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_dress




It is still quite surprising that our perceptions can be “tricked” by reality!